Disclaimer

All opinions and views in this blog is entirely mine, and does not reflect any organization that I am affiliated with. And please exercise careful judgment when trading securities. Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any securities. You do so at your own risk, and do not blame others if the outcome is not in your favour. In case you are wondering, I do not have any securities trading account with any brokerage firms or investment banks.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Am I Charlie?

Folks,

Last week, my senior managing editor Azam Aris wrote in his column in The Edge Malaysia, Jan 19, 2015, about a very interesting article titled "Am I Charlie?"

The article is reproduced below, or you can download here in PDF file.

Source: The Edge Malaysia, Jan 19, 2005

Source: The Edge Malaysia, Jan 19, 2005

His piece is in stark contrast to the editor of The Malaysian Insider, the sister publication of The Edge. You can read the article (reproduced below), which was taken from here.
Je Suis Charlie
By Jahabar Sadiq
The Charlie Hebdo massacre yesterday is an assault on journalism and freedom of expression. No one has a right to curtail or censor expression – be it with a government gazette or a gun.
The 12 who were killed yesterday, including four cartoonists and their colleagues from the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, were journalists penning their thoughts.

Any reply to such thoughts should not be from the business end of a gun. And if anyone thinks they are avenging or defending their faith or god or prophet by shooting and killing people, they are wrong.
Life does not work that way, no matter what religious scholars say.
Haven't they heard that the pen is mightier than the sword, that no army can stop an idea whose time has come? That an idea is like a virus, resilient and highly contagious?
If the three gunmen thought it would terrorise and end their satire – they got it wrong.
The world now knows more about Charlie Hebdo. The world now knows more that these people who profess to defend their religion cannot argue except by killing their opponents.
Their actions are pure terrorism and murder. If they are confirmed to be Muslims and say it is done in the name of Islam, they are the worst kind of Muslims – the ones who use religion to justify their bloodlust, their hate and their ignorance.
For too long around the world, Muslims have lived with their co-religionists using bullets and bombs to speak for their community and faith. No more.
We can no longer call Islam a religion of peace as long as there are these so-called Muslims who murder and maim, terrorise and tyrannise others for their perverted sense of religiosity.
Not unless we condemn them for their actions. Not unless we say unequivocally that Islam does not condone these acts of terror and murder. That Islam speaks about reason, love, charity and that all life is sacred.
The time has come for us to stand up against these fringe groups who only think that death to their enemies is the only answer to keep Islam or any other religion pure and perfect.
Because they only smear it with their ideas and actions. God needs no defenders, neither does any prophet. Our actions represent our faith, our religion – and not if we kill one another.
My faith is reflected in my journalism, to inform people so that they make informed decisions. Je suis Charlie. – January 8, 2015.
* Jahabar Sadiq runs The Malaysian Insider.
See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/je-suis-charlie#sthash.QhqKrmXU.dpuf

It all started with the killing of journalists who worked at Charlie Hebdo, a French satirical magazine. This incident gave rise to the hash-tag #JeSuisCharlie, and #JeSuisAhmed, depending on whose school of thought or side of opinion you choose to lean on.

You can learn more about #JeSuisAhmed by reading this piece here and here.

I find this particular tweet to be very interesting.



Advertising Disclaimers - Too Obvious?

Folks,



Thankfully, ridiculous practice such as this is still pretty much absent in Malaysia.

We do not need to be told what is "too obvious!"



The Reign of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah

Folks, I find this video interesting! A news coverage and a tribute to the late Saudi Arabia's king.



 الفاتحة



OCBC Bank economist trims Malaysia's economic growth to 4.8%

Folks,

Last week, I attended an economic outlook by a rather smart and intelligent economist from OCBC Bank, named Wellian Wiranto. He is an Indonesian, so I was told.

OCBC Bank Economist, Wellian Wiranto
Wellian's full press statement can be read here.

Last week, Wellian issued a "Malaysia Monitor" report on the latest development in Malaysia's economy. His report, which is embedded below, can be downloaded here.



During his presentation at InterContinental Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, the confident Wellian told reporters that he has slashed Malaysia's economic forecast this year to 4.8% from 5.1% previously.

This is to "to reflect the effects of fiscal consolidation efforts as well as cutbacks in business investment activities."

He also said that there is a likelihood that the Bank Negara Malaysia will increase the interest rate by another 25 basis points.

This is despite assurance from Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz, which was reported as saying last week that the current level of interest rate is accommodative.

What that would mean is anyone's guess.

The last time Bank Negara Malaysia increased the rate was in July 2014. You can read the statement here.

Below is my video coverage:


Tabung Haji declares a total of 8.25% bonus

Folks,

Last week, pilgrim fund Lembaga Tabung Haji announced a record total bonus of 8.25% to its depositors, which consist of 6.25% in annual bonus and 2% in Hajj bonus.

You can read here for further details. The bonus will be credited beginning Monday, Jan 26, 2015.

The Hajj bonus is applicable to those having an account balance of RM9,830 or below.

The pilgrim fund also announced its stellar earnings, to be honest. If you want a historical earnings record, you may refer to its annual reports, which is available here.

For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2014 (FY14), Tabung Haji registered a record net profit of RM3.3 billion from RM2.61 billion a year ago.

The chart below shows Tabung Haji's total bonus declared since 2006.


Below is Tabung Haji's total income from various of its operations.


Here is my video coverage:






Thursday, January 22, 2015

MAA: TIV to grow 2% to 680,000 units this year

Folks,

Few days ago, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) released the total vehicle sales - also known as total industry volume (TIV) - for the full year 2014. You can download the document here.

Last year, the TIV grew 1.6%, but fell short of 2% or 13,535 units below its target of 680,000 units. The historical data of the TIV is presented below.

Year
TIV
Passenger Vehicle
Commercial Vehicle
2005
552,316
503,712
48,604
2006
490,768
446,172
44,596
2007
487,176
442,885
44,291
2008
548,115
497,459
50,656
2009
536,905
486,342
50,563
2010
605,156
543,594
61,562
2011
600,123
535,113
65,010
2012
627,753
552,189
75,564
2013
655,793
576,657
79,136
2014
666,465
588,341
78,124
2015F
680,000
600,700
79,300
2016F
694,280
613,780
80,500
2017F
709,554
627,554
82,000
2018F
725,874
641,874
84,000
2019F
743,295
657,295
86,000
Source: MAA

Visually, the TIV looks like this:



According to MAA president Datuk Aishah Ahmad, the government - in its National Automotive Policy (read it here and also here) - may not be able to meet its target of achieving a TIV of one million units by 2020.

She said during the press conference that the target was "ambitious". This is true as well, given the fact that MAA in its forecast said that the TIV in 2019 - a year before 2020 - will only hover at around 743,295.

As for the implementation of goods and services tax (GST), Aishah is keeping a tight lip on whether the car price will increase or not. She said that under current regulations, car makers or dealers can only claim 20% from the 10% sales and services tax imposed from the government. The remaining 80% will be borne by them.

She added that the industry is unsure on the tax mechanism that will be imposed to the dealers and car manufacturers, and the government has yet to issue a full directive.

On cash-for-clunkers, Aishah said that there are many questions that has yet to be answered, before the system can be implemented

Last week, Perodua president and chief executive officer Datuk Aminar Rashid Salleh echoed the same view. Aminar Rashid asked: who will bear the cost? what is the suitable age for the cars to be disposed? how will the scrappage mechanism works?

For the uninitiated, the cash-for-clunkers, also known as the car rebate system, is an economic incentives provided to those having cars aged 10 years or more to be scrapped and exchange for a new one.

Earlier this month, Malaysia Automotive Institute (MAI) CEO Madani Sahari said that the TIV this year may grow to 700,000 units if the government implements the cash-for-clunkers systems. (Read here for details).

Madani explained to reporters that it is in advance discussion with the government to implement the system by March this year. As for the cost, he said that it will be equally shared by the government and car makers of RM2,500 each, making the rebate cost RM5,000.

However, Aishah said its members have not agreed to anything at this stage, and discussions are still on-going.

Anyhow, the government - via Ministry of International Trade and Industry - is expected to announce the progress of the NAP 2014 on January 29. Perhaps, I should ask the minister on his thought.

Anyway, below is my coverage of MAA, which was done in the form of a video:

Friday, January 16, 2015

The collapse of mega-merge proposal

Folks,

The proposal to create the largest bank conventional bank and mega Islamic bank in Malaysia, and the fourth largest bank in South East Asia collapsed two days ago.

I am personally sad to hear this, as I think that Malaysia needs a much more bigger bank to compete globally. But of course, other factors must also be considered as well.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, RHB Capital said (click here):
On behalf of RHB Capital, RHB Investment Bank Berhad wishes to announce the Company has been notified by CIMB Group vide its letter dated 14 January 2015 that its board of directors have, after further deliberation, arrived at a decision to abort the Proposed Merger in light of current economic conditions. CIMB Group and RHB Capital, as well as their relevant subsidiaries, have withdrawn their joint application to BNM to seek approval from BNM and/or the MoF through BNM for, amongst others, the Proposed Merger. With that, the Exclusivity Period pursuant to the exclusivity agreement between CIMB Group, RHB Capital and MBSB dated 10 July 2014 has expired.
There is also a joint press release, which can be read here.

And yesterday, CIMB Research published a rather lengthy analysis  on this matter. You can read it below, and get the PDF copy here.

There is also another research report by Kenanga Research (read here), and MIDF Research (read here). But so far, CIMB has the best analysis, in my opinion.

I guess, the banks will now focus on their day-to-day activities. But it may also be a precursor to other banks (such as Malayan Banking Bhd or Maybank) to embark on consolidation exercise.